Cavendish Maxwell put Dubai’s average residential sale price at AED 1,636 per square foot in August 2026, 1.7% lower than a year earlier: its first annual fall since February 2021. Sales value is still high: Dubai Land Department sales for January to September were the second-highest on record by value, behind 2025.
Key figures
- AED 1,636 per sq ft
Average sale price: down 1.7% year on year and 1.3% over three months
August 2026
Cavendish Maxwell via Khaleej Times, 7 September 2026 - 218.6 points
ValuStrat index: 4.5% lower year on year, with apartments down 6.4% and villas down 3.4%
September 2026
ValuStrat, September 2026 - 61%
of freehold apartment communities held their value; 73% of villa communities
August 2026
Property Portfolio Investor on ValuStrat data, 16 September 2026 - AED 379.4 billion
Sales value across 123,416 transactions: the second-highest on record, after 2025
January to September 2026
Emirates 24|7 on Dubai Land Department data, 1 October 2026
- Average sale price: AED 1,636 per sq ft in August 2026, down 1.7% year on year and 1.3% over three months — Cavendish Maxwell via Khaleej Times, 7 September 2026.
- A first since 2021: the first year-on-year fall in that average since February 2021, during the pandemic — Khaleej Times, 7 September 2026.
- A second index, a larger fall: ValuStrat’s index stood at 218.8 in August, 3.1% lower year on year, with apartments down 5.3% — ValuStrat, August 2026.
- September, the latest reading: ValuStrat’s index stood at 218.6, 4.5% lower year on year, with apartments down 6.4% and villas down 3.4% — ValuStrat, September 2026.
- Not every community moved: 61% of freehold apartment communities and 73% of villa communities held their value in August — Property Portfolio Investor on ValuStrat data, 16 September 2026.
- Sales value: AED 379.4 billion across 123,416 transactions from January to September, the second-highest sales value on record, after 2025 — Emirates 24|7 on Dubai Land Department data, 1 October 2026.
Did Dubai property prices actually fall in 2026?
Yes, on the two measures most often quoted. Cavendish Maxwell, the property consultancy, put the average residential sale price at AED 1,636 per square foot in August 2026: down 1.7% on August 2025 and 1.3% over the latest three months. It is the first year-on-year decline in that average since February 2021, during the Covid-19 pandemic.
August was also a quiet month. Around 10,900 homes changed hands, about 14% fewer than in July, which Cavendish Maxwell partly put down to the usual summer slowdown. Off-plan made up roughly 75% of residential sales.
Ronan Arthur, director and head of residential valuation at Cavendish Maxwell, said the August data confirms that “prices are softening and the market is entering a more mature cycle”. He added that the fundamentals behind Dubai demand remain intact, while fewer launches, regional uncertainty and a broader normalisation in buyer activity shape the near term.
Why do the price indices give different numbers?
Because they measure different things. Cavendish Maxwell reports an average sale price per square foot. ValuStrat’s index is compiled by RICS-registered valuers who mark to market a sample of properties representing more than 90% of Dubai’s residential and commercial markets, according to Property Portfolio Investor.
On ValuStrat’s measure the fall is larger. Its citywide index stood at 218.8 points in August, 0.2% lower on the month and 3.1% lower on the year. Values were 10.2% below February 2026. Apartments were down 5.3% year on year; villas were down 1.7%, their first annual fall since 2021.
September’s reading, published since, points the same way. The index stood at 218.6 points, 0.1% lower on the month and 4.5% lower on the year; apartments were down 6.4% and villas 3.4%. ValuStrat says monthly declines are now close to zero.
The two series disagree on size and agree on direction. “The first fall since 2021” is a milestone in one series, not a separate event. We set out how to read Dubai’s competing price and transaction figures in Off-plan wins the count, ready homes win the money.
Is this the start of a downturn?
The figures describe a market slowing from a record year, not one that has stopped. Cavendish Maxwell put residential transaction value for January to August at nearly AED 270 billion, 24% lower than the same months of 2025.
The Land Department’s wider sales figures say the same from a higher base. Sales from January to September came to AED 379.4 billion across 123,416 transactions, the second-highest sales value on record after 2025. September alone recorded more than AED 29.66 billion of sales; with mortgages and gifts, 16,490 transactions worth more than AED 50.78 billion.
The slowdown shows most in off-plan. ValuStrat’s reading of Land Department data counted 8,016 off-plan registrations in August, 40.4% fewer than a year earlier, and 3,038 ready-home sales, down 20.6%. None of this is a forecast, and we do not offer one. Borrowing costs moved too: see what the 3.9% base rate means for Dubai mortgages.
Which Dubai apartments are holding value, and which are not?
The citywide figure hides a wide spread. ValuStrat found 61% of freehold apartment communities stable in August, and the twelve-month change ran from gains to double-digit falls:
- Rising: Dubai Silicon Oasis up 4.3%, with a typical unit valued at AED 669,130, or AED 790 per sq ft; Dubai Sports City up 4.2%.
- Falling hardest: apartments in the Burj Khalifa district down 20.4%, with a typical unit at AED 2,854,800, or AED 3,050 per sq ft; Jumeirah Beach Residence down 16.9%; Palm Jumeirah apartments down 8.6%.
- Citywide: a weighted average apartment value of AED 1,782,879.
Established districts still trade. Dubai Marina took 5.9% of ready-home sales in August, behind only Jumeirah Village Circle and Business Bay. A buyer there needs the building’s own record, not the citywide average.
What does a citywide dip change for the unit you are watching? Our read
We read a property the way an owner-operator reads a business: what it earns, what it costs to hold, and what the price leaves room for. Seen that way, the 1.7% is the weather, not the price of your unit. A citywide average blends every community and property type that sold that month, and the same August holds a 4.3% gain and a 20.4% fall.
So the useful question is not “are prices down?” but “is this price right for this unit?” Room in a negotiation is a fact about one property and one seller, and it shows in the evidence: what comparable units in the same building have registered at recently, how the asking price sits against them, and how long the unit has been on the market. The citywide figure is context for that conversation, not an argument in it.
The seller’s position matters as much as the market’s. An owner selling to move, an investor exiting, and an off-plan reseller with a handover payment due are three different conversations, even in the same tower. Know which one you are in before you name a number.
Then run the owner’s arithmetic. A lower entry price helps only if the unit still earns after its running costs: service charge, maintenance, vacancy and management. Our guides to gross versus net rental yield and to what owners actually pay in service charges set out that calculation. Rents have eased too; what a rent fall does to net yield is worked in a separate note. A unit that only works at a price below what the evidence supports is not a bargain in a softer market; it is the wrong unit.
Last, the timing trade-off. Waiting for a lower citywide number assumes your unit will follow it, and the community spread shows it may not. We argued in Dubai 2026: The Shift to Logic that asset selection now matters more than market timing; the August data points the same way.
What should you check before you make an offer?
- Recent registered sale prices for comparable units in the same building and community, not the citywide average.
- How the asking price compares with them, and whether it has already been reduced.
- Who is selling, and why: an owner moving, an investor exiting, or an off-plan resale with a payment due.
- What the unit nets after service charge and running costs, at a rent you can evidence.
- For off-plan, how the payment plan and price compare with completed stock nearby.
Market figures are as reported on the dates shown.
Ask Mohammad Saeedi what this actually changes for the unit you are watching, not for the citywide number. Arrange a consultation.
This is general information, not financial or legal advice; check every figure with your adviser before you act.
Did Dubai property prices fall in 2026?
Yes. Cavendish Maxwell put the average residential sale price at AED 1,636 per sq ft in August 2026, down 1.7% on a year earlier and the first annual fall since February 2021 (Khaleej Times, 7 September 2026). ValuStrat's index was 3.1% lower year on year in August and 4.5% lower in September.
How much does an apartment cost in Dubai in 2026?
It depends heavily on the community. ValuStrat's August 2026 data put the citywide weighted average apartment value at AED 1,782,879, and its apartment index stood 5.3% lower than a year earlier. A typical unit ranged from about AED 790 per sq ft in Dubai Silicon Oasis to AED 3,050 in the Burj Khalifa district (Property Portfolio Investor, 16 September 2026).
Is the Dubai property market heading into a downturn?
The data shows a slowdown from a record year, not a stop. Cavendish Maxwell put residential transaction value for January to August 2026 at 24% below 2025, yet Dubai Land Department sales for January to September, AED 379.4 billion, were the second-highest on record by value, after 2025 (Emirates 24|7, 1 October 2026). No one can promise the next move.
Does a citywide price dip mean I can negotiate on a specific unit?
Not by itself. A citywide average blends every community: in August 2026 ValuStrat recorded apartment communities ranging from a 4.3% annual gain to a 20.4% fall. Whether a unit has room depends on its own evidence: recent comparable sales in the building, time on the market, the seller's position and what it nets after costs.
Sources
